Us Economic Outlook 2008 Pdf

Economy: Staring Into the Abyss

Trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus were spent to shock the global economy back to health. Whatever their politics, most economists would argue that at the very least the campaign prevented a prolonged collapse in global economic activity. As this money began to flow into the vaults of banks and the pockets of citizens, a funny thing happened. Everyone started drinking the punch. In the depths of the panic, policymakers, business titans, leading academics and common citizens had a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reflect on the past 30 years of financial deregulation and renegotiate the terms of 21st century capitalism. Instead, as markets stabilized and stimulus-fueled “green shoots” began to emerge, hard decisions were traded for conventional politics, and any opportunity to address the long-term structural challenges like infrastructure and education were replaced with short-term programs to get consumers buying. With their stimulus checks freshly cashed and interest rates at all-time lows, virtually everything was on sale. Business wasn’t back to usual but at least the power was on and the phone would occasionally ring, possibly from a new overseas buyer looking to take advantage of the weaker US dollar. As financial markets rebounded, confidence in the recovery picked up speed. With easy year-over-year comparisons and a weakening dollar, American companies posted strong earnings and made ever rosier forecasts about the growth boom ahead. The only problem is: the boom never came. And the recent fiscal reckoning will only make matters worse. If recent evidence from (pdf) – surveying 700 years of financial folly – suggests that when countries experience the type of debt-fueled growth that gripped most industrialized economies over the last 30 years, it typically ends in a prolonged period of sub-par growth and ultimately some form of default. However painful, politicians already have a working script for how to move forward. Assuming policymakers eventually realize that stimuli and bailouts are only short term measures – even the healthiest patient can only take so much chemotherapy – a longer-term dialogue needs to begin around how to reposition the G7 for prosperity in the new millennium. Of the group, only Germany and Canada have any hope of continued economic growth and political stability, but their fortunes are inexorably connected to the health and well-being of their struggling neighbors.

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World Economic Outlook, April 2008, Housing and the Business Cycle

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